24casts – Prediction Market Intelligence API using jump diffusion modeling

Summary: 24casts provides an API that models prediction market probabilities using a jump diffusion process combined with AI-driven priors, liquidity adjustments, and regime-specific risks to determine fair values, edges, and optimal position sizing. It analyzes noisy event contracts to identify mispricings and generate probabilistic alpha.

What it does

It simulates market probabilities by blending gradual consensus drifts, sudden news jumps, and time decay, then applies AI and liquidity factors to pinpoint accurate pricing and trading signals.

Who it's for

Independent trading bot developers and analysts seeking mathematically derived fair prices in prediction markets.

Why it matters

It addresses algorithmic manipulation by large firms, enabling users to identify true market mispricings and gain trading edges.